Surging LNG Exports Show U.S. Is a Global Natural Gas Superpower
Surging LNG Exports Show U.S. Is a Global Natural Gas Superpower
Robert Bryce
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Publication Note: The Fire Time Magazine appreciates the opportunity to republish this article, which was originally released on March 8, 2025. It is reprinted with permission from Robert Bryce. Be sure to subscribe to his Substack: robertbryce.substack.com. Further use, duplication, or distribution is prohibited without the author’s written permission.
Two decades ago, the accepted wisdom in the energy sector was that the U.S. was running out of natural gas. In 2005, Lee Raymond, the famously combative CEO of Exxon Mobil, declared that “gas production has peaked in North America.” Raymond, who retired from the oil giant in 2006, said that his company was intent on building a new pipeline that would bring Arctic gas from Canada and Alaska south and that more natural gas supplies would be needed “unless there’s some huge find that nobody has any idea where it would be.”
It turned out that huge finds were right under our feet. Over the past two decades, thanks to private ownership of mineral rights, entrepreneurial capitalism, extensive pipeline infrastructure, and ongoing technology improvements in drilling and hydraulic fracturing, U.S. gas production has more than doubled.
The result is a stunning turnaround in energy geopolitics. The U.S. has gone from a natural gas weakling that would have been heavily dependent on LNG exporters like Russia, Australia, Nigeria, and Qatar to a global gas behemoth. More evidence of the turnaround came on Thursday when Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum visited Louisiana to celebrate the ongoing construction and expansion of Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG export terminal. Venture Global announced an $18 billion expansion of the plant, making it the largest LNG export facility in North America.
In a speech in front of more than 1,000 workers, Wright, who pioneered hydraulic fracturing, said that 15 years ago, the U.S. was the world’s largest LNG importer. Today, he said, it “is the largest net exporter of natural gas in the world and growing.”
Last year, Doomberg, everyone’s favorite green chicken and Substack writer, made this accurate observation: “Cheap natural gas is the bedrock of the U.S. economy. It explains much of the country’s economic resilience.”
These seven charts illustrate America’s newfound place as a natural gas superpower.
I’ve used this chart many times in my speeches, and I still think it’s amazing every time.
This chart, which uses a screenshot from the EIA, shows the expected growth in LNG export capacity between now and 2028, when U.S. capacity is expected to exceed 24 billion cubic feet per day. If that happens, U.S. LNG export capacity will equal or exceed the gas production of both Iran and China. (In 2023, Iran produced 24.3 Bcf/d, and China produced 22.7 Bcf/d.)
That, ladies and gentlemen, is evidence that the U.S. is a natural gas superpower.
U.S. natural gas prices have been rising. They have doubled over the past year alone. But even with the price increase, the U.S. still has a big price advantage over the rest of the world.
The Permian Basin is one of the biggest drivers of the growth in domestic gas production. About 300 drilling rigs are now operating in the Permian Basin. Not one of them is targeting gas. Instead, they all are drilling for oil, and the gas they are producing is coming out as “associated” gas, that is, it’s mixed with petroleum. Last year, due to staggering amounts of gas production and insufficient pipeline capacity, prices for the fuel at the Waha trading hub near Fort Stockton were frequently negative.
Last month, while I was in London, I wrote this piece about Britain’s suicidal energy policies. As I explained, Britain has enormous gas resources, but they won’t produce it. Leaders from both the Tories and Labour—what one of our taxi drivers called the “Uni-Party”—are refusing to drill or allow hydraulic fracturing. The result is that the U.K. is increasingly reliant on imported natural gas, and the second largest supplier of that imported gas is the U.S. The Brits are known for their bone-dry wit and frequent self-deprecation. They’re also great at giving their agencies oxymoronic titles, including—no kidding—the Department of Energy Security & Net Zero.
That moniker reminds me of my favorite oxymorons, including military intelligence, family vacation, and jumbo shrimp. But I digress.
In its latest digest of energy statistics, the Department of Energy Security & Net Zero says this about nat gas supplies in 2023: “U.S. imports of LNG made up 61% of total LNG imports (up from 50% in the previous year), 26% of total imports and were equivalent to 18% of demand.” Thus, nearly a fifth of all the natural gas being burned in London, Lincolnshire, and the rest of the U.K. now comes from wells in places like Texas, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, and New Mexico.
A final point: U.S. consumers have benefited from relatively cheap natural gas for decades. Will that continue? Many factors are at work, including the state of the global economy. However, a key variable will be activity in the Permian Basin. On Friday, I asked Bernadette Johnson, a razor-sharp energy analyst who heads the power and renewables division at Enverus, for her thoughts. She said that if oil prices decline to $50 or so, “it would certainly impact the U.S. energy industry, including Permian, and it would also hit global LNG markets and power markets. When the rigs drop in the Permian, you lose the associated gas that the LNG industry is counting on,” and that, she said, will “impact the overall natural gas price here and abroad.”
In other words, relatively high oil prices mean more drilling, which means more gas production from the Permian. If oil prices fall, overall U.S. gas production will fall with them. And if nat gas output falls, nat gas prices will likely increase. What does Johnson think will happen? “I am bullish nat gas prices,” she told me. “But I caveat that because the gas market always seems to shoot itself in the foot.”
While I can’t predict future natural gas prices, it’s clear that the U.S. business has fundamentally changed. American natural gas is now a global commodity, and its price will be determined not only by what’s happening here but also by what is happening in Europe, Asia, and, of course, Russia and Ukraine.
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Robert Bryce
Robert Bryce is a Texas-based author, journalist, podcaster, film producer, and public speaker. Over the past three decades, his articles have appeared in numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, National Review, Field & Stream, and Austin Chronicle. He has given nearly 400 invited or keynote lectures to dozens of groups including the Marine Corps War College, Sydney Institute, Jadavpur University, Northwestern University, and a wide variety of professional associations and corporations. He has also appeared on dozens of TV and radio shows, including NPR, BBC, MSNBC, Fox, Al Jazeera, CNN, and PBS.
