Now came the hard part. Dealers had placed massive orders to fulfill what seemed to be insatiable demand. Manufacturers got caught up on production and began to fill record-breaking orders. Distributor and dealer barns began to catch up with inventory. The channel was now flush with product. But that incredible demand slowed. Restrictions were lifted as the overall economy recovered, and the money that was spent on the home was now going back to the entertainment and travel sectors that had been abandoned for a few years. Here was the post-COVID “bullwhip”: lots of inventory, a return to normal demand with elevated prices, and inflation leading to stagnant inventory. Dealers had plenty to sell through. Manufacturers were no longer receiving those orders. There was a thud. 

The air started to clear when 2024 began. As the year went on, inventories started to level. Orders began to roll in. The channel was clearing, and manufacturers could begin production (although cautiously) yet again. We now sit at the bottom of what looks like a potentially fortuitous curve. Interest rates remained level and even dropped. Inflation seems to have leveled, and as soon as HELOC rates rescind, we could see a dramatic uptick in inflated home values. People will begin to remodel their own homes and lean strongly towards the higher-end product offerings. 

So what does all of this mean for what’s coming? Let’s break that down categorically.

Marketing

The thing that’s heard repeatedly throughout the country is “door swings are down.” Well, buying habits have changed dramatically over the last few years. Millennials are now in their 40s. Radio, print, and other strong traditional methods of advertising have given way to the new consumer. Yellow pages don’t exist anymore. Radio is slowly being replaced by podcasts, streaming services, satellite radio, and so many other services. People now “cut the cord” and stream their TV programming by selecting the services they prefer. Social media has begun a meteoric rise in use. So how does someone get attention in today’s world?

The key is to get your message in front of consumers. And what do you always see in front of people nowadays? Their phones. Internet advertising, social media campaigns, and other various ways of online procurement and digital marketing have become the new normal. As someone who has been on the dealer side for so long, I know the clientele isn’t exactly youthful, and it’s good to know your market. But if you skip past digital channels, you’re eliminating an entire age demographic of purchasing power. Why sell to just the 50+ crowd when you can sell to them and the 30+ crowd too? Seems smart. And guess what? Both groups use their phones in similar ways. Digital marketing allows for demographic breakdowns, clear analytics, precise tracking, geo-fencing, and other features that can let you drive your target to your business. Never before have we had such detailed demographic information available—yet many of us refuse to adopt it. Gone are the days of people going out and shopping, researching and shopping around, and then making that purchase. Today, people research at home, find out what they want, and determine the best place to get it. That’s where you need to come in. Be the place that comes up when someone is looking for one of your products. Although door swings are down, closing rates are astronomical because people arrive ready to buy. Change the way you market and see the results.